We are over two-thirds through the 2025 NRL season, with just seven rounds remaining as the race for finals spots heats up.
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Entering Round 21 this week, only eight points separate the seventh-placed Sea Eagles (24pts) and 16th-placed Eels (16pts).
The Fox Sports Lab has crunched the numbers to produce every team’s top eight and top four chances as well as the likelihood of winning the minor premiership which, for now, appears to be a race between three.
Look away if you are a Titans or Rabbitohs fan, as according to the Lab, your season is all but done, although you probably knew that already.
Raiders and Storm fans can already rejoice, with your teams rated a 100% chance of making the eight, with the Bulldogs and Warriors also virtually guaranteed to be playing finals.
Note: Teams are listed below in order of the current NRL ladder.
NRL stars extend with current clubs | 01:22
1. CANBERRA RAIDERS (34 points, +132)
Predicted finish: 1st
Chance of finishing in top eight: 100%
Chance of finishing top four: 98.0%
Chance of winning minor premiership: 46.2%
Remaining games: Knights (H), Dragons (A), Sea Eagles (H), Bye, Panthers (A), Tigers (H), Dolphins (A)
Analysis: The Raiders’ 40-16 win over the Eels and the Storm’s loss to the Sea Eagles has only strengthened Canberra’s chances of taking out the minor premiership. And with clashes against the struggling Knights and Dragons next up, they will prove very hard for the Storm and Bulldogs to run down, especially with another bye still to come. Ricky Stuart faces a challenge between going after a long-awaited first minor premiership in 35 years and resting some of his stars to ensure they are ready to make a tilt at a drought-breaking first title since 1994. But with seven games to go and a soft draw, the Raiders look certainties for a top two finish and two chances at home finals at GIO Stadium.
2. CANTERBURY BANKSTOWN BULLDOGS (32 points, +98)
Predicted finish: 3rd
Chance of finishing in top eight: 99.9%
Chance of finishing top four: 89.7%
Chance of winning minor premiership: 20.5%
Remaining games: Sea Eagles (H), Tigers (A), Warriors (H), Roosters (A), Storm (A), Panthers (H), Sharks (H)
Analysis: The Bulldogs produced a hard-fought 20-18 win over the Dragons to keep themselves in the race for a top two finish, but it was hardly convincing. The Bulldogs have one of the best defences in the competition, but desperately need to find more in attack, which is why Lachlan Galvin has been brought in to play halfback last week. His last pass heroics got the Bulldogs out of jail, but bigger battles await. The Bulldogs will fancy their chances against Manly and the Tigers in the next fortnight, but a tough run home could make it tough to crack the top two.
Mitch Moses set to spark Eels in return | 00:25
3. MELBOURNE STORM (30 points, +218)
Predicted finish: 2nd
Chance of finishing in top eight: 100%
Chance of finishing top four: 90.8%
Chance of winning minor premiership: 23.7%
Remaining games: Roosters (A), Eels (A), Broncos (H), Panthers (A), Bulldogs (H), Roosters (H), Broncos (A)
Analysis: The Storm were disappointing in their 18-16 loss to Manly in a huge blow to their chances of winning the minor premiership. The Storm have a superior points differential, but are now four points behind the Raiders. Next up the Storm face the Roosters away and will want to win before a tough run home that sees them play the Broncos twice and the Bulldogs and Panthers. With no more byes, Craig Bellamy will have to juggle his stars if he wants to give them a freshen up before the finals, which could make it even more difficult for them to run down the Raiders and Bulldogs for a top two finish. However, this team is trying to avenge last year’s Grand Final loss and at this stage with the class in their team they are still the favourites to go all the way in 2025.
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4. NEW ZEALAND WARRIORS (30 points, +36)
Predicted finish: 4th
Chance of finishing in top eight: 99.8%
Chance of finishing top four: 82.4%
Chance of winning minor premiership: 9.1%
Remaining games: Titans (H), Dolphins (H), Bulldogs (A), Dragons (H), Titans (A), Eels (H), Sea Eagles (A)
Analysis: The Warriors have begun life without Luke Metcalf with back-to-back wins over the Tigers and Knights after he was rubbed out for the season with an ACL injury. But they were hardly convincing in beating the struggling Knights with a try on the bell. Tanah Boyd has been solid after being given first crack at replacing Metcalf, but it remains to be seen if he can mix it with the elite playmakers in the NRL come finals time. The Warriors should make light work of the Titans this weekend and a soft run home should ensure they finish in the top four and potentially as high as second. However, there are doubts they have the quality in the halves to go all the way for a maiden title.
5. BRISBANE BRONCOS (26 points, +80)
Predicted finish: 6th
Chance of finishing in top eight: 88.2%
Chance of finishing top four: 15.5%
Chance of winning minor premiership: 0.3%
Remaining games: Eels (H), Rabbitohs (H), Storm (A), Dolphins (H), Knights (A), Cowboys (A), Storm (H)
Analysis: The Broncos had the bye in Round 20 after beating the Titans away to keep their top four hopes alive. Ben Hunt made a successful return from a foot injury with the Broncos finally unleashing their all star spine including Reece Walsh, Ezra Mam and Adam Reynolds and they will only get better with the more games they play. Walsh has come a long way this season and a long with the Panthers, the Broncos are one of the teams outside the top four that can go all the way this season. The Broncos face the Eels and Rabbitohs in the next fortnight, but their acid test will be two clashes with the Storm on the run home and the top four could be a bridge too far.
OFFICIAL! Kevvie appointed as Roos coach | 01:41
6. PENRITH PANTHERS (25 points, +45)
Predicted finish: 5th
Chance of finishing in top eight: 89.4%
Chance of finishing top four: 14.1%
Chance of winning minor premiership: 0.2%
Remaining games: Tigers (H), Titans (A), Knights (A), Storm (H), Raiders (H), Bulldogs (A), Dragons (A)
Analysis: The Panthers are well and truly back on track for a shot at a ridiculous fifth straight title after beating the Rabbitohs 30-10. Nathan Cleary and Isaah Yeo were rested, but the Panthers got the job done for their sixth straight win. Both are set to return this week in a bad sign for the Tigers. The fact NSW lost the Origin series is a bad sign for the rest of the NRL because Cleary’s desire to prove his critics wrong with a fifth straight premiership is now burning even brighter. Penrith face the Tigers this week before clashes with the Titans and Knights, so a top four finish is not out of the question if the Warriors falter.
7. MANLY SEA EAGLES (24 points, +60)
Predicted finish: 8th
Chance of finishing in top eight: 70.4%
Chance of finishing top four: 5.2%
Chance of winning minor premiership: 0%
Remaining games: Bulldogs (A), Roosters (H), Raiders (A), Tigers (A), Dolphins (H), Dragons (A), Warriors (H)
Analysis: An upset win over arch rivals the Storm has Manly back in the hunt for a finals spot, but they are not out of the woods yet amid a tough draw. The Sea Eagles next face the Bulldogs and Raiders away and the Roosters at home, so they will need to cause some more upsets if they want to feature in September footy. A strong points differential looms as their trump card as they look to squeak into the finals, but unless they can go on a run they will struggle to make it, especially with just three home games left.
8. CRONULLA SHARKS (24 points, 21)
Predicted finish: 7th
Chance of finishing top eight: 76.2%
Chance of finishing top four: 3.4%
Chance of winning minor premiership: 0%
Remaining games: Rabbitohs (A), Cowboys (H), Dragons (A), Titans (H), bye, Knights (H), Bulldogs (A)
Analysis: The Sharks finally snapped their form slump with back-to-back wins over the Dolphins and Roosters, who are two of their main rivals for a finals spot. Nicho Hynes has finally found a purple patch of form and if the Sharks are to make the top eight and do anything come finals time, he needs his fingerprints all over the team’s performances. The Sharks face the Rabbitohs next which is a good chance to improve their points differential in a tight race. However, a soft draw on the way home including a bye means the Sharks are favoured to make it to the finals and with Addin Fonua-Blake in the team, they have all the ingredients to make a splash once they get there.
9. DOLPHINS (22 points, +169)
Predicted finish: 9th
Chance of finishing in top eight: 45.1%
Chance of finishing top four: 0.5%
Chance of winning minor premiership: 0%
Remaining games: Bye, Warriors (A), Roosters (H), Broncos (A), Sea Eagles (A), Titans (H), Raiders (H)
Analysis: The Dolphins missed a golden chance to cement their place in the top eight in their 24-12 loss to the Sharks, but are back on track after a big 43-24 win over the Cowboys. However, given their massive points differential advantage and relatively soft draw on the way home, they are still on track for a maiden finals berth. Jake Averillo has stepped up in the absence of Kodi Nikorima, who was a big loss given his form. The bye in Round 21 could see the Dolphins move back into the top eight without playing. And given their brilliant and unpredictable attack led by Isaiya Katoa and Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow, the Dolphins are a team no one will want to play come finals time if they can get there.
“It’s been a complete stuff up!” | 02:41
10. SYDNEY ROOSTERS (22 points, +8)
Predicted finish: 10th
Chance of finishing in top eight: 28.8%
Chance of finishing top four: 0.5%
Chance of winning minor premiership: 0%
Remaining games: Storm (H), Sea Eagles (A), Dolphins (A). Bulldogs (H), Eels (A), Storm (A), Rabbitohs (H)
Analysis: The Roosters missed a golden chance to beat one of their rivals for a top eight spot with a disappointing 31-18 loss to the Sharks. Sam Walker has returned at halfback and looms as their trump card as they battle for a finals spot over the remaining eight games, but the decision to play Chad Townsend could come back to bite them. Trent Robinson’s side face the Storm next and will have to play them twice and the Bulldogs in a tough run home. The Roosters have the class across the park to be a handful for any team in the finals, although their tough fixtures list might make it hard for them to squeak in — but top eight teams beware if they do.
11. ST GEORGE ILLAWARRA DRAGONS (18 points, -58)
Predicted finish: 11th
Chance of finishing top eight: 1.9%
Chance of finishing top four: 0%
Chance of winning minor premiership: 0%
Remaining games: Cowboys (A), Raiders (H), Sharks (H), Warriors (A), Rabbitohs (A), Sea Eagles (H), Panthers (H)
Analysis: The Dragons were the better team for most of their 20-18 loss to the Bulldogs but couldn’t get the job done. It appears their injury toll, especially in the forwards is catching up with them over the course of a long season. The Dragons have competed in most games this year, but their defence has seen them lose a lot of tight ones and that is the difference between playing finals and not. A tough away clash against the Cowboys is up next before a tough run home that will make it difficult for the Dragons to win many more games this year. It will be interesting to see if Shane Flanagan gives some younger players a crack in the remaining games because their finals hopes are all but over.
12. WESTS TIGERS (18 points, -101)
Predicted finish: 12th
Chance of finishing top eight: 0.1%
Chance of finishing top four: 0%
Chance of winning minor premiership: 0%
Remaining games: Panthers (A), Bulldogs (H), bye, Sea Eagles (H), Cowboys (H), Raiders (A), Titans (A)
Analysis: The Tigers 21-20 win over the Titans was their second in three games amid hopes they can finish the season stgrongly and avoid the bottom four. The Tigers are missing Jahream Bula’s class at fullback, while Latu Fainu is still finding his feet as an NRL halfback, but they showed against the Titans they have plenty of fight in them despite being below their best. The Tigers play the Panthers and Bulldogs next up, but they still have a bye and play the Titans and Cowboys, so they can finish the season strongly and avoid a dreaded fourth wooden spoon. However, if they can’t get out of the bottom four it will likely be a disappointing season given the promise they showed early in the year and Benji Marshall needs every win he can get to ensure his future.
Should Ryles be under more pressure? | 03:15
13. NORTH QUEENSLAND COWBOYS (17 points, -163)
Predicted finish: 13th
Chance of finishing top eight: 0.1%
Chance of finishing top four: 0%
Chance of winning minor premiership: 0%
Remaining games: Dragons (H), Sharks (A), Eels (A), Knights (H), Tigers (A), Broncos (H), bye
Analysis: The Cowboys were disappointing in their 43-24 loss to the Dolphins that has ended their slim finals hopes. The Cowboys now have the worst points differential in the NRL, which will make it impossible for them to make the finals and the spoon is still a possibility. The Cowboys face the Dragons next up, but a soft draw on the way home could see them finish just outside the top eight. Tom Dearden has been a revelation at halfback since his positional switch and the Cowboys have some young guns of the future, but until they address their horror defence they won’t be a finals team and Todd Payten’s future beyond 2025 is uncertain at best.
14. NEWCASTLE KNIGHTS (16 points, -90)
Predicted finish: 16th
Chance of finishing top eight: 0%
Chance of finishing top four: 0%
Chance of winning minor premiership: 0%
Remaining games: Raiders (A), bye, Panthers (H), Cowboys (A), Broncos (H), Sharks (A), Eels (A)
Analysis: The Knights had one hand on a win over the Warriors but a try on the bell broke their hearts and ended their slim finals hopes. Dane Gagai has done an admirable job filling it for Kalyn Ponga and Fletcher Sharpe at the back, but without their captain the Knights don’t offer enough threats in attack. Reports coach Adam O’Brien will be sacked at the end of the year suggests the Knights season is about to implode. Clashes against the Raiders and Panthers either side of their final bye means things are about to get even worse and the spoon is still a realistic outcome for the Knights who have a tough run home.
Souths’ “$2 million mistake” | 02:12
15. SOUTH SYDNEY RABBITOHS (16 points, -149)
Predicted finish: 14th
Chance of finishing top eight: 0%
Chance of finishing top four: 0%
Chance of winning minor premiership: 0%
Remaining games: Sharks (H), Broncos (A), Titans (A), Eels (H), Dragons (H), bye, Roosters (A)
Analysis: The Rabbitohs were again brave, but outclassed by the Panthers 30-10 to end their finals hopes. The loss of Cody Walker and Latrell Mitchell to injury will make it difficult for Souths to win another game, but they have plenty to play for, most notably avoiding a wooden spoon, which would be Bennett’s first in his decorated career. Souths have had a horror run with injuries this year, but they will be looking to finish the season strong to give them hope of turning things around in 2026. The next fortnight against the Sharks and Broncos will be a tall order, but Souths will back themselves against the Titans, Eels and Dragons before their final bye and their final round clash with the Roosters looms as their grand final, with a win potentially robbing the Chooks of a finals berth.
16. PARRAMATTA EELS (16 points, -149)
Predicted finish: 15th
Chance of finishing top eight: 0%
Chance of finishing top four: 0%
Chance of winning minor premiership: 0%
Remaining games: Broncos (A), Storm (H), Cowboys (H), Rabbitohs (A), Roosters (H), Warriors (A), Knights (H)
Analysis: The Eels were brave in the first half before being soundly beaten 40-16 by the Raiders. The decision to not play Dylan Brown begs the question why they didn’t let him go before June 30 and try to get something in return, despite the five-eighth’s desire to stay? If Jason Ryles continues to experiment with young players over the course of the rest of the season — prioritising development over results — the spoon is still a realistic chance given their tough draw.
Carrigan encourages trio to rep Samoa | 01:59
17. GOLD COAST TITANS (14 points, -157)
Predicted finish: 17th
Chance of finishing top eight: 0%
Chance of finishing top four: 0%
Chance of winning minor premiership: 0%
Remaining games: Warriors (A), Panthers (H), Rabbitohs (H), Sharks (A), Warriors (H), Dolphins (A), Tigers (H)
Analysis: It has been a sorry old season for the Titans, with their 21-20 loss to the Tigers making them the clear favourites for the wooden spoon. The Titans have the second worst defence of any team in the NRL and their horror points differential is likely to mean they will win a tight race to the NRL’s most unwanted team award. Des Hasler’s frustrations boiled over in the dressing room after their loss to the Tigers, with his future at the club all but over after the season, but the Titans still have plenty to play for. They need to convince injured skipper Tino Fa’asuamaleaui that it is worth playing the rest of his career at the club and the key to that is unearthing a halves pairing, which has been an issue for the club for years. Clashes with the Rabbitohs in Round 23 and the Tigers in the final round loom as their Grand Finals to avoid last place.
